If you are a regular reader of this blog, you may have guessed that Bambi thinks very highly of Mr. Anthony Samrani’s journalistic work as well as depth and accuracy of his political analysis. Lebanon is richer with l’Orient Le Jour (OLJ)/L’Orient Today. OLJ is lucky to have Samrani’s talent.
In the short YouTube video shared at the end of this post, Mr. Samrani explains to us “the two major unknowns of the framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon“. Bambi took the time to translate his excellent insights from French to English, with the assistance of her faithful friend, Mr. Google Translate. In the following paragraphs, you can find this translation:
“The framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon has sparked heated debate within Lebanon; some view it as a total capitulation to Israel, while others see it, conversely, as a source of hope for the restoration of Lebanese sovereignty.
On the one hand, the text does indeed have numerous flaws.
It is very favourable to Israel, reflecting both the reality on the ground and the fact that the main mediator—the United States—clearly leans toward one side over the other.
The text makes no mention of an Israeli withdrawal, sets no timetable for one, and even stipulates in Article 13 that Lebanon waives, whether provisionally or absolutely is a matter of debate, its right to take legal action regarding potential Israeli war crimes committed on its territory.
On the other hand, the text does have several significant strengths.
The first point is that Lebanon is directly involved in this agreement, yet it is mentioned in the Iran-US deal without ever having been consulted.
The second point is that it offers a glimpse of the pacification of southern Lebanon and, in a sense, an end to the perpetual wars between Israel and Lebanon since 1948—wars that have come at such a high cost to the Land of the Cedars.
Finally, it does indeed open up the possibility of restoring Lebanese sovereignty, but under difficult conditions—namely, the disarmament of Hezbollah in exchange for the withdrawal of Israeli troops.
In this regard, the text presents two major unknowns.
On the one hand, Lebanon has no guarantee that Israel will actually honor its side of the agreement. By what criteria, for instance, will Israel assess the effectiveness of Hezbollah’s disarmament?
On the other hand, is Lebanon sincere in its desire—for once—to honour its commitments? In other words, is it sincere in its intention to disarm a militia that refuses to lay down its arms and even threatens to wage civil war in order to keep them?
In short, if both parties act in good faith, the text indeed outlines a path toward restoring Lebanese sovereignty. However, if either or both fail to uphold their end of the bargain, it risks instead cementing an Israeli occupation in the medium to long term—thereby playing right into Hezbollah’s hands”.
