
“Will the US strike or not?
The entire region has been holding its breath for weeks now regarding the possibility of an American intervention against Iran. Although the US armada is now deployed off the Iranian coast, no good option seems to be emerging.
Option 1, without resorting to military force and thanks to pressure, the Americans eventually obtain major concessions on nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and support for regional militias.
This is the ideal option for Washington, but it seems unrealistic given that it touches on fundamental aspects of the Islamic Republic. There may be tactical concessions, but certainly not strategic overhauls.
Option number 2, a major but calibrated military intervention, which would target the Iranian ballistic missile program, members of the Pasdaran, but also members of the Iranian elite, including perhaps the Iranian supreme leader.
However, this option poses two problems: firstly, the possible Iranian response, which this time would not be symbolic, against American troops deployed in the region and against US allies in the region. On the other hand, there was no guarantee that this would be enough to make the regime back down.
Third option, the Americans want a major change in Iran, but this requires a large-scale, long-term operation with very uncertain consequences, and the possibility, once again, of regional escalation.
So, of course, the United States could surprise us, as they did in Venezuela, and have most certainly anticipated all possibilities of Iranian reaction.
Finally, a question that is of particular interest to us here in Beirut: would Hezbollah join a large-scale Iranian response?
Despite threats from the axis and the party, this seems highly unlikely. Hezbollah has little to offer and much to lose, both militarily and politically”.













