Before booking her recent quick last trip to Beirut, Bambi asked her sister Roula (journalist) about the situation in Lebanon. She understood from her that it is hard to predict what was going to happen (or not).
Regarding the same question of whether Israel is preparing for a new war against Lebanon, here is a thoughtful brief short video by Mr. Anthony Samarani (posted on YouTube 9 days ago) addressing this timely issue. Beyond his current video, Bambi wants to repeat once again that she has the utmost respect for Mr. Samrani’s work. What an outstanding journalist and editor. Bravo to him and to the entire l’Orient Le Jour for the continuity of excellence [of course, this includes Roula’s inspiring work :)].
Anyhow, Bambi took the time to transcribe the short French-speaking video in question. She then asked her good friend, Mr. Google Translate, for his assistance with the English translation. For your convenience, dear readers, you can find Mr. Samrani’s translated text as well as his original French message at the end of the video.
With much love, this post ends with best wishes to Lebanon. Enough of wars. Enough of dark days. May safety, peace, forgiveness, healing, love, and prosperity prevail not just in the Land of Cedars, but also in all the countries of the world.
Mr. Anthony Samrani’s translated insights:
“Drones are once again flying low over Beirut. The south is being heavily bombed. And the question that haunted us for months last year is back on everyone’s lips: Is Israel preparing another attack against Lebanon?
The farewell message from US Special Envoy Tom Barrack had the merit of being very clear: Lebanon is not doing enough to disarm Hezbollah. And if it doesn’t fulfill its mission, Israel will do it in its place.
Is a new war necessarily imminent? We must remain very cautious, especially since we don’t have all the information. However, we can assume that Israel would have an interest today in intensifying its bombing campaign, without however entering into a formal war.
Israel’s situation is indeed very comfortable today. It can bomb wherever and whenever it wants, without retaliation from Hezbollah and with the general indifference of the international community. A significant intensification of strikes could thus allow it to send a strong message to the Shiite militia and the Lebanese authorities, without provoking the potential displeasure of the Trump administration, which does not want a new conflict in the Middle East, nor a possible retaliation from Hezbollah, which, if cornered, would eventually be forced to respond to Israeli attacks.
Israel’s objective seems quite clear: to complete the disarmament of Hezbollah and, at the very least, to secure a security agreement with Lebanon that is heavily in its favor. The question now is what Israel believes it needs to achieve these two objectives. Could it be content with a low-profile war, or does it necessarily believe it needs a high-intensity war or campaign?”
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Mr. Anthony Samrani’s original insights in the French language:
« Les drones survolent à nouveau Beyrouth à basse altitude. Le Sud est massivement bombardé. Et cette question qui nous a hanté l’année dernière, pendant des mois, revient sur toutes les lèvres: Israël prépare-t-il une nouvelle attaque contre le Liban?
Le message d’adieu de l’envoyé spécial Américain Tom Barrack avait le mérite d’être très claire: Le Liban ne fait pas assez dans le désarmement du Hezbollah. Et s’il ne remplit pas sa mission, Israël le fera à sa place.
Une nouvelle guerre était-elle alors nécessairement imminente? Il faut rester très prudent, d’autant plus que nous n’avons pas toutes les informations.On peut toutefois supposer qu’Israël aurait intérêt aujourd’hui à intensifier ses bombardements sans pour autant entrer dans une guerre officielle.
La situation d’Israël est aujourd’hui en effet très confortable. Il peut bombarder où il veut, quand il le veut, sans riposte du Hezbollah et dans l’indifférence générale de la communauté internationale. Une intensification intense des frappes pourrait ainsi lui permettre d’envoyer un message fort à la milice chiite et aux autorités libanaises, sans susciter l’éventuel mécontentement de l’administration Trump qui ne veut pas d’un nouveau conflit au Moyen-Orient et une éventuelle riposte du Hezbollah qui, s’il est mis dos au mur, serait contraint de à un moment de répondre aux attaques israélienne.
L’objectif israélien semble assez clair: achever le désarmement du Hezbollah et obtenir à minima un accord sécuritaire avec le Liban qui soit très largement à son avantage. Toute la question est désormais de savoir de quoi Israël pense-t-il avoir besoin pour parvenir à ses deux objectifs. Pourrait-il se suffire, se contenter, se limiter à une guerre sous les radars ou pense-t-il nécessairement avoir besoin d’une guerre ou d’une campagne de haute intensité?»
